Covid-19: Nobody Saw Another Corona Virus Coming?

The frequent excuse for the lack of civil preparedness to the corona virus is, “Nobody saw it coming.”

Well, actually that’s not true:

  1. BlueDot, a news alert service, notified their subscribers on Dec. 30
  2. a Texas grocery store chain with a Director of Emergency Preparedness did:
    Inside the Story of How H-E-B Planned for the Pandemic

  3. Disneyworld Shanghai was closed on Jan. 24

And in the past 20 years, there’s been:

  1. SARS-1 (2002)
  2. H5N1 (2005)
  3. H1N1 (2009)
  4. MERS (2012)
  5. Zika (2015-2016)
  6. SARS-2 (2019)

Chronic epidemics, that especially affect those hospitalized:

  1. MDR-TB
  2. obesity
  3. Ebola (most years)
  4. 18 drug-resistant “hospital” bacteria per CDC

Update 2020-04-24: The Wuhan virus lab published papers on corona virus research, and appears to be source of the pandemic. The research was funded by the US and Chinese governments. More research is needed to 100% confirm what was transmitted and when, but nobody denies this possibility now.

politico.com: Inside America’s 2-Decade Failure to Prepare for Coronavirus

A corona patient using a ventilator requires up to 21 days on the machine, unlike non-corona patients, which only need 3-4 days typically. I guess it’s somewhat reasonable to not have enough ventilators on hand for 5x as many patient-days. (Update 2020-04-12: ventilator patients have a 66% to 90% mortality rate, so ventilators were ineffective and a red herring. Cannulas (rubber hose with oxygen bottle) are now recommended as long as possible – until chronic fainting.)

But there should have been a plan on how to make/procure them if needed, since the ventilator inventory count is considered important enough by many countries to be a military secret, including the US.

Some constructive things the USA can do for next time:

  1. study coronavirus (SARS-1 and SARS-2) and understand how to test and cure them
  2. maintain a FEMA/CDC/Whitehouse pandemic department and a pandemic mgmt and communications plan, like we used to do
  3. maintain a stockpile of PPE and ventilators (California’s stockpile was not maintained due to budget cuts)
  4. talk to other countries about how they handled it. China, S. Korea and Singapore did a lot better than Western countries.

Covid-9 Timeline Info (Starting Dec. 1, 2019)

TIMELINE: The Trump Administration’s Decisive Actions To Combat the Coronavirus
WHO.int: Pneumonia of unknown cause – China
CDC.gov: Coronavirus (COVID-19)
nationalreview.com: The Comprehensive Timeline of China’s COVID-19 Lies
Wuhan shrimp seller identified as coronavirus ”patient zero”
COVID-19 twice as contagious as previously thought – CDC study
Why New York has 12 times as many coronavirus deaths as California
AP report claims China knew of pandemic danger in Wuhan even as officials downplayed risk of virus
Antibody tests reveal that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts
Corona Virus Outbreak Dashboard
Coronavirus: What did China do about early outbreak?

Ventilators

Mossad officer describes covert global battle to obtain ventilators at all costs
For some survivors, coronavirus complications can last a ‘lifetime’
npr.org: Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients
cnn.com: Doctor: Splitting a single ventilator only works for some
A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients
With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19
marketwatch.com: Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago
washingtonpost.com: I spent six days on a ventilator with covid-19. It saved me, but my life is not the same.
apnews.com: Some doctors moving away from ventilators for virus patients”> HN

Tracing Apps

youtube.com: Covid-19 in S. Korea

Aviation During Pandemic

Here’s Why So Many Planes Are Still Flying, Nearly Empty
Coronavirus travel restrictions for visitors to Hawaii in 2020
W: List of busiest airports by passenger traffic

Dashboards

Santa Clara County Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard
COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Dashboard Gets 1.2 Billion Interactions a Day
Our World in Data
Rt Covid-19 Chart by State
NY Regional Monitoring Dashboard

Other News

Suspected SARS virus and flu samples found in luggage: FBI report describes China’s ‘biosecurity risk’
medium.com: What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage
The Coronavirus Called America’s Bluff
‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response
Best Evidence Yet that Coronavirus Came from Wuhan BSL-4 Lab
Sweden’s Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring
Here’s What You Do With Two-Thirds of the World’s Jets When They Can’t Fly
The Yeast Supply Chain Can’t Just Activate Itself
Near 90% Mortality Rate in Intubated COVID-19 Patients in NYC
36,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
When SARS-1 Ended
Lab-made? CoV2 genealogy through the lens of gain-of-function research
US government review of first Wuhan repatriation says safety protocols not followed
Antibody study suggests Covid-19 could be far more prevalent in the Bay Area than official numbers suggest
Silent hypoxia: Covid-19 patients who should be gasping for air but aren’t

dailymail.co.uk

Coronavirus has been in California ‘a lot longer than we believed’ with cases as early as DECEMBER
Wuhan lab was performing coronavirus experiments on bats from the caves where the disease is believed to have originated – with a £3m grant from the US

Disney Shanghai

Bob Iger Thought He Was Leaving on Top. Now, He’s Fighting for Disney’s Life
Shanghai Disney shuts to prevent spread of virus

Due to #COVIDー19, all TCP applications will be converted to UDP to avoid handshakes.

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