I predicted in early 2019 that the 737 MAX wouldn’t fly in 2019, based on my engineering and commercial pilot rating experience.
I was right, and most other pundits were very wrong.
Boeing lost $18 billion total on the 737, resulting in a $5 billion overall company loss in 2019 after parking 400 new and about 389 customer aircraft, and fired their CEO, as well as the manager for pilot training. Airbus is now the #1 global manufacturer, climbing from 5% of sales to more than half.
However, Boeing must be a truly dysfunctional organization to still not be ready to fly as we approach March 2020.
What’s interesting is that since Boeing said a sim wouldn’t be needed, there basically aren’t any available globally in 2020.
Additionally, more problems have been found, including wire harness chafing and FOD in fuel tanks. If the FAA decides those issues must be fixed, there’s a small but non-zero chance those 789 parked planes (389 delivered and 400 undelivered) will be scrapped.
Boeing is an enviable position where the US military and world airlines need them, but that’s in spite of Boeing management, not because of them. In the early days of aviation, a company founder could have stepped in to right the ship. Unfortunately, those days are long gone.
avweb.com: Boeing Pushes Estimated MAX Return To Midyear, Boeing Finds FOD In Stored MAX Aircraft
reuters.com: Boeing proposal to avoid MAX wiring shift does not win U.S. support
Boeing Built Deadly Assumptions Into 737 Max, Blind to a Late Design Change
youtube: Inside the Boeing 737 MAX Scandal That Rocked Aviation | WSJ – Mar 10, 2020, How Boeing Will Get the 737 MAX Flying Again, What has happened to Boeing?!